Nearly Half of Latin American Frogs and Toads Are at Risk
A new study shows that nearly half of frog and toad species in Latin America may lose their habitat range by 2050.

Trachycephalus mesophaeus is among the species identified in a new study as likely to lose part of their range due to climate change. Credit: Gabriela Alves-Ferreira
Climate change is expected to drastically reduce the presence of frogs and toads in the wild, especially in the tropical forests of Latin America, according to a new study published in the scientific journal Nature Communications by researchers from Brazil, Germany and the United States. The research shows that nearly half of these species may lose part of their distribution area by 2050, and nine of them may disappear completely.
“Amphibians have unique characteristics and have been adapting for millions of years. When one of these species disappears, it takes with it part of the history of life on Earth. Furthermore, the loss of these species may result in the loss of essential services they perform in the ecosystem,” explained ecologist Gabriela Alves-Ferreira, lead author of the study, formerly a visiting scholar at The University of Texas at Austin, and a Ph.D. student in the graduate program in ecology and conservation at the State University of Santa Cruz.
Small frogs and toads, which often go unnoticed, are key components of ecosystems and excellent bioindicators — that is, they are among the first to show that something is wrong in the environment. According to scientists, when amphibians become sick or vanish, it’s a sign that nature is at risk.
“With continued climate change, amphibian species will shift their distributions and the communities of frogs will get scrambled,” said Kelly Zamudio, UT professor of integrative biology. “Predictive studies such as this one help us identify areas where most community change will happen and focus on those areas for conservation.”
The research analyzed nearly 500 species of frogs and toads and combined climate, phylogenetic and geographical distribution data. The results indicate that with global warming and reduced rainfall, many species will have increasingly smaller habitats — which may lead to the extinction not only of animals but also of millions of years of evolutionary history.
Credit: Gabriela Alves-Ferreira
Experts also warn that even species not currently considered at risk may become vulnerable in a short period. Therefore, the criteria for assessing extinction risk must also consider the effects of climate change.
The study helps identify priority areas for conservation, where rare species with long evolutionary histories live.
“Protecting these places could make a difference not only for frogs and toads but for the health of the entire planet,” said Alves-Ferreira.
Other authors of the study were UT’s Tim Keitt and Universidade Estadual de Santa Cruz’s (UESC) Neander Heming, Daniela Talora and Mirco Solé. Funding for the research was provided by the U.S. National Science Foundation, Brazil’s Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) and UESC’s Pró-Reitoria de Pesquisa e Pós-Graduação.